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US Debt and Deficits Ensure Violent Dollar Sell-Off Ahead

David Stockman wrote: the triumph of cronyism occurred October 3, 2008. The event was the enactment of TARP - the single greatest abomination of economic policy since the 1930s or perhaps ever.

Like most other quantum jumps in state intervention, the Wall Street bailout was justified as an exercise of last resort to break the rules to save the system. In the immortal words of George W. Bush, our president most economically confused since FDR: "I have abandoned the free market principles to save the free market system."

On the advice of Paulson and Bernanke panicked, of course, the president was wrong, that without a rescue plan "this sucker is down." Yet 30 months after the fact, evidence that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a nuclear disaster style was not found.

In fact, the only real difference with Iraq is that in the campaign against Saddam we did not find any weapons of mass destruction, however, in the campaign to save the economy, we actually used between them - or at least their economic equivalent.

Yet the urban legend persists that in September 2008 the payment system was about to crash, and that without bailouts, firms would have missed payroll, ATMs would have gone dark and the disintegration General Financial would have resulted.

But the only thing that even vaguely hints of this fiction is the dislocation of the commercial paper market. Upon review, however, it is clear that what has actually evaporated in this sector was not the money to the payroll, but billions of profits can book in which the banks had already obtained by the yield curve trade-offs that have now been violently ending.

At that time, the commercial paper market was approximately $ 2 billion has been heavily owned by institutional money market funds - including First Reserve, who was the grandfather, with about $ 60 billion soles. Most of this rock was, but her portfolio also included a lot of moderate Lehman commercial paper - to improve performance designed to collect a little extra "beeps" of performance.

As it happened, this show makes no sense to a de facto hedge fund, which had been taken advantage of 30 to 1, leads to the release humiliating First Reserve "broke the buck" and that institutional fund managers Sleepy who were his clients would suffer a loss - all 3%!

This should have been a "sort this" moment - but then all the institutions of lemmings others who were having to pay money market fund for the privilege of getting the safe return of panic and decide to refund of their deposits.This new stage in the chain reaction essentially meant that some maturing commercial paper could not be reversed because of these money market redemptions.

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